Roles in the cycle

Who is where in the cycle - five roles on the same clock and timeline.

● now (2026 II kvartal) · ○ in 24 months

recovery (2026 II kvartal)

Role	Phase	Direction	State
designer	recovery	↗	hungry (alakoormatud)
developer	recovery	↘	hungry (alakoormatud)
builder	recovery	↘	hungry (alakoormatud)
subcontractor	recovery	→	hungry (alakoormatud)
supplier	recovery	↘	hungry (alakoormatud)

HUNGRY — turnover and margin below the role's usual level; FILLING — turnover above the usual level and buying turned to growth; AT PEAK — turnover near the top, buying high, margin turned down; COOLING — turnover turned below the usual level; UNKNOWN — some input is missing

Relay — who moves ahead, and what lies ahead

	22 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	23 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	24 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	25 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	26 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2

designer	2022Q1 · alakoormatud · 100.000000	2022Q2 · alakoormatud · 98.895342	2022Q3 · alakoormatud · 94.407440	2022Q4 · alakoormatud · 101.038482	2023Q1 · alakoormatud · 94.760964	2023Q2 · alakoormatud · 92.627409	2023Q3 · alakoormatud · 95.876685	2023Q4 · alakoormatud · 96.397805	2024Q1 · alakoormatud · 89.607129	2024Q2 · alakoormatud · 88.182845	2024Q3 · alakoormatud · 88.460516	2024Q4 · alakoormatud · 88.955710	2025Q1 · alakoormatud · 90.634797	2025Q2 · alakoormatud · 87.831849	2025Q3 · alakoormatud · 92.807008	2025Q4 · alakoormatud · 92.589541	2026Q1 · 83.540715	2026Q2 · 90.095093	2026Q3 · 93.677 (87.516…99.837)	2026Q4 · 93.457 (84.765…102.149)	2027Q1 · 84.324 (74.718…93.929)	2027Q2 · 90.939 (78.978…102.901)	hungry (alakoormatud)
developer	2022Q1 · alakoormatud · 100.000000	2022Q2 · alakoormatud · 84.274926	2022Q3 · alakoormatud · 100.492217	2022Q4 · alakoormatud · 94.736256	2023Q1 · alakoormatud · 77.907315	2023Q2 · alakoormatud · 81.735294	2023Q3 · alakoormatud · 99.565123	2023Q4 · alakoormatud · 69.273697	2024Q1 · tipus · 67.711204	2024Q2 · tipus · 50.219064	2024Q3 · tipus · 59.916865	2024Q4 · tipus · 78.263099	2025Q1 · alakoormatud · 73.860930	2025Q2 · alakoormatud · 67.603813	2025Q3 · alakoormatud · 57.369034	2025Q4 · alakoormatud · 70.390217	2026Q1 · 58.115779	2026Q2 · 56.336981	2026Q3 · 49.869 (33.994…65.744)	2026Q4 · 61.188 (33.642…88.734)	2027Q1 · 50.518 (22.664…78.372)	2027Q2 · 48.972 (17.793…80.150)	hungry (alakoormatud)
builder	2022Q1 · alakoormatud · 100.000000	2022Q2 · alakoormatud · 109.833117	2022Q3 · alakoormatud · 114.831552	2022Q4 · alakoormatud · 120.587920	2023Q1 · alakoormatud · 87.023409	2023Q2 · alakoormatud · 96.135146	2023Q3 · alakoormatud · 107.440973	2023Q4 · alakoormatud · 103.186579	2024Q1 · alakoormatud · 77.961433	2024Q2 · alakoormatud · 84.982384	2024Q3 · alakoormatud · 98.741197	2024Q4 · alakoormatud · 104.458380	2025Q1 · alakoormatud · 75.477291	2025Q2 · alakoormatud · 90.135115	2025Q3 · alakoormatud · 104.274965	2025Q4 · alakoormatud · 101.457976	2026Q1 · 70.250462	2026Q2 · 82.585033	2026Q3 · 100.998 (93.717…108.280)	2026Q4 · 98.270 (88.250…108.289)	2027Q1 · 68.043 (59.546…76.540)	2027Q2 · 79.990 (68.456…91.524)	hungry (alakoormatud)
subcontractor	2022Q1 · täituv · 100.000000	2022Q2 · täituv · 120.619243	2022Q3 · täituv · 122.237414	2022Q4 · täituv · 129.280752	2023Q1 · alakoormatud · 91.432868	2023Q2 · alakoormatud · 104.048779	2023Q3 · alakoormatud · 114.841448	2023Q4 · alakoormatud · 113.478174	2024Q1 · alakoormatud · 82.471086	2024Q2 · alakoormatud · 90.037723	2024Q3 · alakoormatud · 108.862835	2024Q4 · alakoormatud · 115.005806	2025Q1 · alakoormatud · 82.473759	2025Q2 · alakoormatud · 94.719271	2025Q3 · alakoormatud · 106.853135	2025Q4 · alakoormatud · 114.540508	2026Q1 · 80.244792	2026Q2 · 94.465499	2026Q3 · 105.458 (101.554…109.362)	2026Q4 · 113.045 (107.127…118.964)	2027Q1 · 79.197 (74.119…84.275)	2027Q2 · 93.232 (86.330…100.135)	hungry (alakoormatud)
supplier	2022Q1 · jahtuv · 100.000000	2022Q2 · jahtuv · 124.085190	2022Q3 · jahtuv · 108.550977	2022Q4 · jahtuv · 98.164357	2023Q1 · alakoormatud · 66.704656	2023Q2 · alakoormatud · 79.448293	2023Q3 · alakoormatud · 77.943178	2023Q4 · alakoormatud · 78.620725	2024Q1 · alakoormatud · 60.660033	2024Q2 · alakoormatud · 73.155192	2024Q3 · alakoormatud · 71.343033	2024Q4 · alakoormatud · 77.357100	2025Q1 · alakoormatud · 61.439806	2025Q2 · alakoormatud · 76.044628	2025Q3 · alakoormatud · 68.526607	2025Q4 · alakoormatud · 79.693627	2026Q1 · 60.986426	2026Q2 · 72.155325	2026Q3 · 67.365 (63.879…70.852)	2026Q4 · 78.343 (72.609…84.077)	2027Q1 · 59.953 (54.579…65.327)	2027Q2 · 70.932 (63.590…78.274)	hungry (alakoormatud)

hungry (under-loaded) filling at the peak cooling cell colour = the role's state · darkness = turnover level in the quarter · hatched = forecast; state in the forecast: we don't have that number

the forecast direction arrives in the next release; the range is under ⓘ

“designer” has moved about 1 quarters ahead of “subcontractor”

“supplier” has moved about 2 quarters ahead of “builder”

What this means for your role

designer

	now	in 24 months
Demand	enquiries recovering ↗	close to the peak ↑
Input prices (wages)	at a low level →	wage pressure rising ↑
Profit	turning up from the bottom ↗	improving ↑

Before signing, ask:

Enquiries are coming back — is your price list still the one from the last downturn?

If the order book fills faster than the team, in what order do you take on jobs — and at what price?

developer

	now	in 24 months
Demand	low, the first buyers are back →	recovering ↗
Input prices (construction price)	at the bottom of the decline ↓	turning upward ↑
Profit	at a low level ↓	at the start of the recovery ↗

Before signing, ask:

Construction prices are at the bottom and the sales window is only opening — which moves first: your decision or the prices?

A building started today is completed in a rising market — does your sales plan know that?

builder

	now	in 24 months
Demand	first new tenders ↗	growing ↑
Input prices	close to the bottom →	on the way up ↑
Profit	thin, competition is sharp ↓	improving ↗

Before signing, ask:

Input prices are close to the bottom — but for how long? What happens to the margin if prices turn mid-construction?

Competitors still price their bids by the downturn — are you already pricing by the recovery?

subcontractor

	now	in 24 months
Demand	first new tenders ↗	growing ↑
Input prices	close to the bottom →	on the way up ↑
Profit	thin, competition is sharp ↓	improving ↗

Before signing, ask:

Input prices are close to the bottom — but for how long? What happens to the margin if prices turn mid-construction?

Competitors still price their bids by the downturn — are you already pricing by the recovery?

supplier

	now	in 24 months
Demand	first new tenders ↗	growing ↑
Input prices	close to the bottom →	on the way up ↑
Profit	thin, competition is sharp ↓	improving ↗

Before signing, ask:

Input prices are close to the bottom — but for how long? What happens to the margin if prices turn mid-construction?

Competitors still price their bids by the downturn — are you already pricing by the recovery?

data as of: 2026Q2